课程讲学通知

课程题目：地下水环境模型校核、反演和不确定性

授 课 人：叶明 副教授

授课人单位：Department of Scientific Computing and Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Institute， Florida State University

授课时间：2012年5月16日-18日

授课地点：重点实验室学术报告厅（农水楼4楼）

联 系 人：拟听课的学生请发邮件至史良胜老师的邮箱 liangshs@gmail.com,以便于准备资料

课程简介：There has been a growing awareness among environmental scientists of the need to calibrate environmental models and quantify the uncertainty associated with outcomes produced by the models. A similar awareness is growing among regulatory agencies, decision makers, stakeholders and informed segments of the general public. With recent development of computers and computational methods, advanced model calibration techniques have been used in environmental inverse modeling. Similarly, advanced methods of uncertainty analysis have emerged. Model calibration and predictive uncertainty quantification is arguably one of the fastest growing sub-disciplines in environmental sciences and engineering.

It is the intent of this three-day short course to cover the theory and practice of model calibration, model predictive uncertainty analysis, and model-based environmental management. The course will include both theoretical and practical components for participants to gain solid understanding and hand-on experience. Graduate students and working professionals across the whole spectrum of environmental modeling will benefit from this course.

课程提纲：

Day 1:

·         Theory of nonlinear parameter estimation

·         Theory of regression uncertainty analysis

·         Application of nonlinear parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis

·         Use of UCODE_2005 for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis

Day 2:

·         Theory of Bayesian parameter estimation

·         Theory of Bayesian uncertainty analysis

·         Theory of Bayesian data-worth analysis

·         Application of Bayesian parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis

·         Use of MCMC code for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis

Day 3:

·         Theory of geostatistical methods for parameter estimation

·         Theory of geostatistical methods for uncertainty analysis

·         Application of geostatistical parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis

·         Use of TPROGS for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis