“Global Climate Change and Water System Impacts” 系列主题学术讲座（讲座议程）

报告题目：Future intensification of high-impact storms associated with landfalling Atmospheric Rivers over North America

报  告 人：DrAlex J. Cannon，Environment and Climate Change Canada

邀  请 人：陈杰 教授

时      间：2021年12月14日（星期二）上午9:00-10:00

地      点： Zoom会议（ID:  873 912 5358）

               密码：123456

报告人简介：  

Dr. Cannon is a research scientist with the Climate Research Division of Environment and Climate Change Canada. He is co-located with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis on the University of Victoria campus. His research is primarily devoted to climate scenario development, understanding of climate extremes, statistical climatology and machine learning, and regional hydroclimatology. This involves a focus on scientific issues that underpin the delivery of climate services. Dr. Cannon is Editor-in-Chief of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s flagship journal, Atmosphere-Ocean, and is a past recipient of CMOS’s Andrew Thomson Prize in Applied Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization’s Research Award for Young Scientists. He has also served as an affiliate faculty member in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of British Columbia since 2009.

报告简介：

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow, and transient corridors of strong horizontal water vapour transport concentrated in the lower atmosphere. While ARs are common – for example, British Columbia (B.C.) can experience around two dozen in a typical rainy season – intense landfalling ARs can produce extremely heavy rainfall events at times and locations where they are forced upward. For example, the recent flooding in November 2021 B.C. was the result of a particularly long-lasting and intense rainfall event associated with an atmospheric river storm. Some parts of southern B.C. received more than a month’s worth of precipitation in just two days. Scientific studies have concluded that climate change will likely increase the intensity and duration of ARs in the mid-latitudes. This is primarily because a warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more water vapour, which means that ARs will carry more moisture and produce more precipitation. Precipitation intensities may be further enhanced due to slower moving storms in a warmer climate. Here, future projections from three medium to large climate model ensembles – the 50 member CanRCM4 regional model, the 35 member CESM1 global model, and the 10 member MPI-ESM1-2-HR global – are used to assess the impact of global warming on intensification of high-impact AR storms over North America. The frequency, duration, and magnitude of potentially hazardous AR storms is projected to increase with warming. Increases are not confined to coastal regions – storms penetrate further inland and further north, reaching communities that have previously not routinely experienced these kinds of storms.

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