报告题目：More Effective Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts for Decision Making in Water Resources Planning and Management

报告人：蔡喜明教授，美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校

时间：2016年6月8日（星期三）15:00

地点：国家重点实验室学术报告厅（农水楼一楼）

报告内容简介：

The last decade has witnessed tremendous scientific and technological advances in our ability to forecast hydroclimatic variability and extremes, which are potentially useful to help operate and manage water resources systems aiming to larger reliability and efficiency. However, many forecasts are rarely effectively used in practice and there is little evidence of incorporating them in real-world decision making. One of the main barriers of the uptake of forecasts, which is often cited by studies, is related to forecast uncertainty; however, even reliable forecasts alone are not sufficient to ensure the expected response. In fact, water managers make decisions in a sophisticated setting, which is on one hand affected by uncertainty and on the other hand constrained by regulations and policies. Therefore, it is not only important to recognize the various key individual challenges, but also critical to understand the interdependencies among them in order to properly address the effective use of forecasts. This understanding is also essential to assess the expected value of forecasts information which is of high importance for decision makers prior to incorporating forecasts. This talk, building upon an extensive literature review of using forecasts in water resources and agricultural decision making, is to 1) address the key challenges limiting the uptake of forecast, 2) highlight the interdependency among different factors, and 3) summarize a series of relevant studies.

蔡喜明教授简介：

蔡喜明教授1990年获清华大学本科学位，1994年获清华大学硕士学位，1999年获德州大学奥斯丁分校博士学位，1999-2003在国际粮食政策研究所、国际水管理研究所从事研究工作。2003年至今在美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校任教。

他开展了水资源管理、水经济学、生物能源以及全球气候变化等方面的研究，是流域水—经济模型，全球水—粮食模型的先驱者之一。

他现任Water Resources Research共同主编（2013-），Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management的副主编（2009-今）、Water International编委（2010-），美华水工程师学会主席，曾任Water Resources Research副主编（2005-2009）等。发表SCI论文100余篇，获Water International (2005)、Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management (2011)优秀论文奖。

获美国自然科学基金杰出青年奖(National Science Foundation CAREER Award)，Colonel Harry F. and Frankie M. Lovell Endowed讲座教授、首位周文德学者等荣誉。

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